生猪养殖业作为畜牧业中不可或缺的重要组成部分，既是菜篮子工程的重点项目，也是农民增收的重要手段。自1985年中国逐步放开生猪价格管控后，生猪养殖业面临的内外部市场环境日益复杂多变。不确定性冲击频发、资源约束日益趋紧、政府干预过多等不断影响生猪生产，导致生猪产能剧烈波动，严重威胁市场安全。为防范化解市场风险，稳定生产秩序，中央和地方政府积极制定并实施相关调控政策进行规范。然而生猪产能调控政策和监管机制虽不断完善，产能大幅波动的现实问题却未得到根本性解决。为探究生猪产能波动机理、优化现有产能调控政策，本文基于市场失灵、理性经济人、政策评估等理论，对生猪产能波动机理和不同情境下政策实施效果进行了分析，以期为优化生猪产能调控政策提供支持。

首先，本文运用X-12季节调整法和H-P滤波法对生猪产能波动进行识别，在此基础上分析了生猪产能波动的概况；根据政策作用发挥方式差异，结合政府信息公开标准、相关政策科学研究和政策研究意义，选取以猪粮比为预警信号的猪肉储备政策和以能繁母猪存栏量为预警信号的调控政策，分别作为间接调控政策和直接调控政策的代表；其次，基于蛛网模型、集体行为、理性经济人、市场失灵等理论，对生猪产能波动机理和产能调控政策机理进行分析，在此基础上明确了生猪产能波动的因素及各因素间关系，构建了生猪产能波动仿真模型；最后，利用该仿真模型，评估不同情景下国家储备肉政策和能繁母猪存栏调控政策对缓解生猪产能波动的效果差异，以期为优化产能调控政策提供参考。

基于上述研究，本文得出以下基本结论：（1）国家储备肉政策能够部分缓解生猪产能周期性波动，但对抑制季节性波动和随机性波动效果有限。（2）能繁母猪存栏调控政策能够有效缓解生猪产能周期性波动、季节性波动和随机性波动，并且通过放宽现有预警区间，可以强化政策治理效果。（3）产能调控组合政策的效果要优于单一政策，较低的政策强度便可起到缓解产能波动的目标，但需要科学掌控政策力度，一旦过度干预，极易加剧原有生猪产能波动。

基于前文研究结论，为进一步提升调控政策实施效果，抑制生猪产能波动，促进生猪产业健康稳定发展，本文提出以下对策建议。第一，完善生猪信息公布平台，合理引导主体生产预期；第二，完善应急管理方案，健全猪肉储备制度；第三，激活市场自我调节机制，稳步推进生猪产能调控；第四，加快构建政策协同机制，推进产能调控政策融合。

As an indispensable and important part of the livestock industry, pig farming is both a key project of the food basket project and an important means for farmers to increase their income. Since 1985, China has gradually liberalized the price control of hogs, the internal and external market environment facing the hog farming industry has become increasingly complex and volatile. Frequent uncertainty shocks, increasingly tight resource constraints, and excessive government intervention have continuously affected hog production, leading to drastic fluctuations in hog production capacity and seriously threatening market security. In order to prevent and resolve market risks and stabilize the production order, the central and local governments have actively formulated and implemented relevant regulatory policies to regulate. However, although the pig production capacity control policies and regulatory mechanisms have been continuously improved, the real problem of large fluctuations in production capacity has not been fundamentally solved. In order to explore the mechanism of hog production capacity fluctuation and optimize the existing production capacity control policies, this paper analyzes the mechanism of hog production capacity fluctuation and the effect of policy implementation in different situations based on the theories of market failure, rational economic man, and policy evaluation, with a view to providing support for the optimization of hog production capacity control policies.

Firstly, this paper applies the X-12 seasonal adjustment method and H-P filtering method to identify the fluctuation of hog production capacity, and analyzes the overview of the fluctuation of hog production capacity on this basis; according to the differences in the way of playing the role of policies, combined with the government information disclosure standards, related policy scientific research and policy research significance, the pork reserve policy with the hog-to-feather ratio as the early warning signal and the regulation policy with the breeding sow inventory as the early warning signal are selected as the representatives of indirect regulation policy and direct regulation policy, respectively. Secondly, based on the theories of spider web model, collective behavior, rational economic man, and market failure, we analyze the mechanism of hog production capacity fluctuation and the mechanism of production capacity regulation policy, based on which we clarify the factors of hog production capacity fluctuation and the relationship between the factors, and construct a simulation model of hog production capacity fluctuation; lastly, we use the simulation model to evaluate the different scenarios of the national reserve meat policy and the breeding sow inventory under different circumstances. Finally, the simulation model is used to assess the differences in the effects of the national reserve meat policy and the breeding sow inventory control policy on alleviating the fluctuations in pig production capacity under different scenarios, with a view to providing a reference for the optimization of the production capacity control policy.

Based on the above research, this paper draws the following basic conclusions: (1) The national reserve meat policy can partially alleviate the cyclical fluctuation of hog production capacity, but has limited effect on suppressing seasonal fluctuation and random fluctuation. (2) The breeding sow inventory control policy can effectively alleviate the cyclical fluctuations, seasonal fluctuations and random fluctuations of hog production capacity, and the policy governance effect can be strengthened by relaxing the existing warning interval. (3) The effect of the combination of capacity control policies is better than a single policy, and a lower policy intensity can achieve the goal of alleviating capacity fluctuations, but it is necessary to scientifically control the intensity of the policy, and it is easy to exacerbate the fluctuation of the original pig production capacity in the event of over-intervention.

Based on the conclusions of the previous study, in order to further enhance the effect of the implementation of regulatory policies, inhibit the fluctuation of pig production capacity, and promote the healthy and stable development of the pig industry, this paper puts forward the following countermeasures recommendations. First, improve the hog information announcement platform, and reasonably guide the main production expectations; second, improve the emergency management program, and improve the pork reserve system; third, activate the market self-regulation mechanism, and steadily promote the regulation of hog production capacity; and fourth, accelerate the construction of the policy synergy mechanism, and promote the integration of production capacity regulation policies.

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