持续的气候变化和人类活动干扰使得生态保护与经济发展之间的矛盾日益突出，导致陆 地生态系统功能失衡与退化风险急剧上升，对全球和区域生态安全以及人类可持续发展构成 了严重威胁。黑龙江省作为中国的“粮仓”和北方重要的生态屏障，不仅肩负着保障粮食安 全的重要使命，还承载着维护生态平衡的关键功能。然而，随着东北振兴战略和粮食安全政 策的深入推进，黑龙江省的土地利用模式和生态系统结构发生了显著变化，这种变化在推动 经济发展的同时，也对生态系统服务的质量和功能造成了明显冲击。生态系统服务的持续下 降，已对区域的可持续发展构成潜在威胁，更对国家整体的生态安全带来了严峻挑战。本文 基于贝叶斯网络分析框架，系统揭示了黑龙江省生态系统服务的权衡与协同关系及其关系变 化下的影响因素机制。研究表明，黑龙江省生态系统服务具有显著的空间异质性与动态性特 征，森林、湿地、农田和草原生态系统在服务供给中各具特色，但受到土地利用变化、气候 条件及人类活动的综合影响，生态系统服务权衡协同关系出现波动，针对这一现象，研究提 出了差异化的空间管理策略，并推荐通过优化水资源管理和加强生态保护，促进区域生态安 全与经济可持续发展。具体结论如下： （1）黑龙江省典型生态系统服务量化评估及时空分布：本文对黑龙江省2000-2020年间 期间食物生产、产水服务、释氧固氮、土壤保持、防风固沙以及生境质量六种生态服务功能 进行评估，研究发现在研究区内生态服务量在研究期内具有不同程度的变化，空间上各个服 务之间也呈现出空间异质性，从生态系统服务簇上看，低供给簇主要分布在松嫩平原南部及 部分农业密集区，高供给簇集中在大兴安岭、小兴安岭及三江平原等自然条件较好的区域， 特定功能簇(如高碳储存与固氮簇、高水源涵养与防风固沙簇)在森林区和草原过渡地带分布 较多，表现出生态功能的区域性特征。 （2）生态系统服务权衡协同关系：在2000-2020年间，黑龙江省六项生态系统服务两两 之间呈现出显著的空间分布差异，其中食物供给-防风固沙、土壤保持-产水量的协同关系在 区域内广泛分布，而食物供给-释氧固氮、生境质量-土壤保持等对的权衡关系占主导，尤其在 松嫩平原等农业区，粮食生产的高度集约化显著降低了生物多样性和生态服务的协同效率。 从生态高效区视角看，森林与湿地集中区域(如大兴安岭、小兴安岭)表现出较强的生态服务 协同性，而平原地区的权衡关系更为显著。 （3）基于贝叶斯网络的生态系统权衡协同驱动分析：不同生态系统服务与其他服务的权 衡协同驱动具有不同的特点。研究表明，气候变化情景下，对水源涵养、土壤保持和释氧固 氮等服务供给能力的冲击比较显著，在空间上主要分布在大兴安岭南部及其老爷岭附近，而 人类活动对生境质量和粮食生产服务的影响更为明显，主要集中于松嫩平原和三江平原地区， 这进一步放大了区域内生态服务的权衡风险。从数量上看，超过80%的区域中，食物供给-生 境质量、食物供给-释氧固氮、生境质量-土壤保持等对的权衡关系占据主导。而在食物供给 土壤保持（65.2%）、食物供给-产水量（98.9%）等部分服务对中，协同关系占据多数，表明 区域内服务关系存在显著的复杂性与多样性。

Continuing climate change and human interference have made the contradiction between ecological protection and economic development increasingly prominent, leading to a sharp rise in the risk of imbalance and degradation of terrestrial ecosystems, and posing a serious threat to global and regional ecological security as well as to the sustainable development of humankind. As China's “granary” and an important ecological barrier in the north, Heilongjiang Province not only shoulders the important mission of guaranteeing food security, but also carries the key function of maintaining ecological balance. However, with the deepening of the Northeast Revitalization Strategy and the food security policy, significant changes have occurred in the land use pattern and ecosystem structure of Heilongjiang Province, which, while promoting economic development, have also had a significant impact on the quality and function of ecosystem services. The continuous decline of ecosystem services has posed a potential threat to the sustainable development of the region, and moreover, a serious challenge to the overall ecological security of the country. Based on the Bayesian network analysis framework, this paper systematically reveals the trade-offs and synergistic relationships of ecosystem services in Heilongjiang Province and the mechanisms of influencing factors under the changes of the relationships. The study shows that ecosystem services in Heilongjiang Province are characterized by significant spatial heterogeneity and dynamics, and forest, wetland, farmland and grassland ecosystems have their own characteristics in service provision, but fluctuations in ecosystem service trade-offs and synergistic relationships have been observed under the combined impacts of land-use changes, climatic conditions, and human activities, and in response to this phenomenon, the study proposes a differentiated spatial management strategy and recommends that through optimizing the water resource management and strengthening ecological protection to promote regional ecological security and sustainable economic development. Specific conclusions are as follows:

(1) Typical production system of Helongjiang Province, production and time distribution: Main text of Helongjiang Province during 2000-2020 food production, water supply, hardening, soil retention, wind protection Since the beginning of time, there have been six types of environmental quality, the amount of work that has been done in the current research area, the amount of work that has been done in the current research area has changed to the same degree, and the space that each part of the work has also appeared in the space. Different quality, production system, agricultural management, low supply main distribution in the southern part of the Songqian plain and parts of agricultural dense areas, high production concentration in Daxuanling, Xiaoxianling, Sanjiang Plain and other natural conditions. Conditionally favorable area, specific functional area (as high water source, high water source, and wind protection) in the forest area, Japanese grassland area, distribution of area, and appearance of specific functional area.

(2) Birth-related employment, employment, and equity cooperation: From 2000 to 2020, six years of birth and employment-related employment in the Black Longjiang Province. During this period, significant differences in air space distribution were observed, among which there were differences in food supply, wind protection, soil retention, and water volume. The distribution of food within the area, the food supply, the quality of the environment, the preservation of soil, etc. In the Songqian Plains and other agricultural areas, the high concentration of food and nutrition has resulted in a decline in the productivity of biological diversity. Looking at the high efficiency area of life, forest and wetland intensive areas (Rudai Xing'anling, Xiao Xing'an'an) appear as a result of the development of productive behavior, and the plains area's Jinghenghuan system was written by the author.

(3) Fundamentals of the system of life, equity, equality and movement analysis: different features of the system of employment, equality and the same movement of other people. Research statement, under the changing circumstances, the source of the water, the soil retention, the supply capacity of the soil, etc., written by Hiroki Hiroaki, mainly distributed in the southern part of Daxinganling and the old town. In recent years, the influence of people's activities on the living environment and food production has increased, and the main concentration has been in the Matsuda Plain and Sanjiang Plains area, and as we have continued to move forward, the effects of living in the consumption area have changed.

(4) Based on the above analysis, the optimization of the spatial pattern of ecological services is explored from the ideas of problem orientation, spatial delineation optimization and ecological cycle sustainability. The study found that forest and grassland ecosystems have significant advantages in service provision and synergistic relationships, while the service trade-off phenomenon in farmland areas is prominent, and a differentiated spatial management strategy should be adopted, which provides a scientific basis for the optimal management of ecosystem services and spatial zoning regulation. Meanwhile, under the perspective of ecosystem service clusters and efficient synergistic zones, the study delineates the major ecological functional zones in Heilongjiang Province and proposes zoning regulation strategies. Optimized management suggestions based on natural resource endowment are proposed for the ecological reserve, conservation and enhancement zone, human-land coordination zone, source-land connection zone, and ecological restoration zone. The proposed zoning strategies are of great significance in ensuring regional ecological security and realizing the coordinated development of ecological protection and economic development.

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